Agate and Pearl Street Golf Statistieken, Winter: Golven met Licht of Offshore Winden
This image shows only the swells directed at Agate and Pearl Street that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 6931 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 43% of the time, equivalent to 39 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal northern hemisphere winter but 5% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 5%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Agate and Pearl Street is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Agate and Pearl Street about 43% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 27% of the time. This is means that we expect 64 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 39 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.