Surf Forecast Surf Report
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Cat Bay (Shelly Beach) Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

The rose diagram shows the variation of swells directed at Cat Bay (Shelly Beach) through an average March and is based upon 3460 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coast so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Cat Bay (Shelly Beach). In this particular case the best grid node is 12 km away (7 miles). The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 4% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs. The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the S. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Cat Bay (Shelly Beach) and offshore. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Cat Bay (Shelly Beach), you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical March, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Cat Bay (Shelly Beach) run for about 14% of the time.

Also see Cat Bay (Shelly Beach) wind stats

Compare Cat Bay (Shelly Beach) with another surf break

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