Surf Forecast Surf Report
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Motiti Island - Ernies Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

The rose diagram shows the range of swells directed at Motiti Island - Ernies over a normal March. It is based on 2964 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Motiti Island - Ernies, and at Motiti Island - Ernies the best grid node is 18 km away (11 miles). The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These happened only 57% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs. The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was E, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ENE. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Motiti Island - Ernies and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Motiti Island - Ernies, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical March, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Motiti Island - Ernies run for about 43% of the time.

Also see Motiti Island - Ernies wind stats

Compare Motiti Island - Ernies with another surf break

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