Surf Forecast Surf Report
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Ngataki Beach and Paxton Point Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

This picture shows the range of swells directed at Ngataki Beach and Paxton Point over a normal March, based on 2964 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Ngataki Beach and Paxton Point, and at Ngataki Beach and Paxton Point the best grid node is 25 km away (16 miles). The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 77% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs. The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SE. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Ngataki Beach and Paxton Point and offshore. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Ngataki Beach and Paxton Point, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical March, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Ngataki Beach and Paxton Point run for about 23% of the time.

Also see Ngataki Beach and Paxton Point wind stats

Compare Ngataki Beach and Paxton Point with another surf break

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