Surf Forecast Surf Report
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Utua Mamao (Atafu) Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

The graph describes the combination of swells directed at Utua Mamao (Atafu) through an average March. It is based on 3460 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coastline so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Utua Mamao (Atafu). In the case of Utua Mamao (Atafu), the best grid node is 8 km away (5 miles). The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These occurred only 97% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast. The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NE. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Utua Mamao (Atafu) and offshore. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Utua Mamao (Atafu), you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical March, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Utua Mamao (Atafu) run for about 3% of the time.

Also see Utua Mamao (Atafu) wind stats

Compare Utua Mamao (Atafu) with another surf break

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